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Minnesota Twins designated hitter Byron Buxton. Jesse Johnson-USA TODAY Sports

AL Central preview: First to 81 wins could reach the postseason

By David Hill | Last updated 3/11/24

The AL Central is not a powerhouse of a division.

The Twins were the only team in 2023 to finish above .500 in the division. FanGraphs does not expect anything to change in 2024, projecting just one team to finish with a winning record. Once again, the first team to 81 wins could end up in the postseason.

This is not the same AL Central of last season. Bobby Nightengale of the Minneapolis Star-Tribune reported early in the offseason that the Twins would reduce payroll. Meanwhile, the Tigers young players could take another step forward and the Royals revamped their pitching staff. The Guardians are always dangerous.

While the AL Central may not be a powerhouse, the divisional crown could be determined in the final week of the season.

Here's how we think the AL Central will shake out. (Last year's record and standing are in parenthesis.)

1. Minnesota Twins (87-75, first)

The Twins offseason was more about which players left.

Sonny Gray and Kenta Maeda left in free agency, leaving significant holes in the rotation. The Twins added pieces late, acquiring Anthony DeSclafani and Justin Topa to help the pitching staff. Carlos Santana signed a one-year deal and is the presumed starter at first due to his defensive acumen. Manuel Margot is a solid fourth outfielder and can step in should Byron Buxton be injured again.

The Twins are still a talented team but their margin for error is smaller than it has been in the past.

2. Detroit Tigers (78-84, second)

The Tigers were unexpectedly competitive in 2023 and may be poised to take another step forward in 2024.

They struck quickly during the offseason, acquiring Mark Canha from the Brewers for minor league reliever Blake Holub. As the Tigers were 11th in the AL with a .305 on-base percentage in 2023, Canha is the type of player the lineup needed. Andrew Chafin and Shelby Miller will make the bullpen deeper while Jack Flaherty and Kenta Maeda improve the rotation.

If Tarik Skubal and Casey Mize can stay healthy, and the young position players take a step forward, the Tigers could be the surprise team of 2024.

Tarik Skubal's 2 1st Inning Ks (96mph & 97mph)...and Sword. ⚔️ pic.twitter.com/3TGtbE5Cen
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) March 4, 2024

3. Kansas City Royals (56-106, fifth)

The Royals were fully aware of what they needed to do this offseason.

The Royals also did not waste time in addressing their weaknesses. Seth Lugo and Michael Wacha were signed to fortify the rotation. Will Smith and Chris Stratton should bolster a bullpen that needed talent. Separate trades with the Braves brought back Kyle Wright and Nick Anderson. Hunter Renfroe provides another sorely needed power bat. Most importantly, the Royals signed Bobby Witt Jr. to a long-term extension, locking in their franchise player while sending a message that ownership is serious about building a contending team.

Is this enough for a playoff berth in 2024? The Royals should improve, and if Will Smith has anything to say about it, maybe a World Series could be in their future.

4. Cleveland Guardians (76-86, third)

There was a time when the Guardians could not be counted out.

Players would come and go due to salary constraints. Pitchers would flourish only to be traded away, the next crop of promising arms ready to take their place. But there was one constant - future Hall of Fame manager Terry Francona. Francona is gone now, having been replaced by neophyte Stephen Vogt. The Guardians' biggest moves this offseason were to sign Austin Hedges and bring back Carlos Carrasco on a minor league deal. Jose Ramirez, Josh Naylor and Steven Kwan are a good foundation for a lineup but they need help. The team does not have enough, even in the AL Central.

The Guardians are starting a new era. Expect a few bumps in the road as those changes take place.

5. Chicago White Sox (61-101, fourth)

The White Sox are supposed to be rebuilding.

That was the perception at the start of the offseason, especially when Aaron Bummer was sent to Atlanta for a handful of depth pieces. Dylan Cease was the subject of numerous trade rumors but is still in Chicago. The White Sox would love to trade Eloy Jimenez but have reportedly received "very little" interest. This leaves the White Sox in limbo where they do not have enough pieces to contend but have not been able to fully embrace a rebuild.

The team needs to tear down the roster and rebuild. It is a matter of ripping off the bandage.

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