Here's what it would cost the 49ers if they decide to extend cornerback Charvarius Ward

Ward is another significant example of the lingering effects of draft pedigree, as the “undrafted free agent” label cast a shadow on his value in negotiations. Despite allowing a near-50% catch rate over three years and limiting his receivers to well under a yard per coverage rep, Ward signed for an APY of $13,500,000, a relatively modest 6.48% of the cap.

While these metrics were impressive, Ward actually took a significant leap when he joined the 49ers.

His catch rate increased slightly, but he actually decreased his yards allowed per coverage rep. Ward’s most noticeable leap came from his aggression on the ball. His five interceptions in 2023 actually matched his career total for the previous five years, and his PBU’s took a major leap between these two negotiations.

Charvarius was a second-team All-Pro selection and made it to his first Pro Bowl after a standout 2023. If he were a free agent this year, he would be negotiating with near-peak leverage. However, by the time Ward hits free agency next year he’ll be entering his age-29 season. Cornerbacks drafted outside the first round have a hard enough time negotiating their first contract; negotiating a deal into a cornerback’s 30s is even harder.

Ward holds some leverage in the 49ers having spread $12,298,000 of prorated bonuses over three void years, which will accelerate to their 2025 dead cap if they aren’t able to retain him. If they structure a back-loaded deal they’ll actually achieve some savings by extending him, whether it happens in 2024 or before the start of free agency next year.

Jaylon Johnson’s $19,000,000 APY will be the pie-in-the-sky for Ward, who’s blend of physicality, shut-down ability, recent accolades and playoff success should position him at or near the top of the tier just below the elite first-round cornerbacks. However, the Niners will attempt to leverage Ward’s age against him to the best of their ability.

James Bradberry signing for a $12,666,667 APY in 2023 at age 30 will likely be where the Niners set the floor for negotiations. Bradberry outperformed Ward in some coverage measurables, but also allowed more touchdowns and has been a far less reliable tackler.

The Niners would do well for themselves by giving Ward a very similar valuation as they did when they first signed him. The 6.48% against the cap he signed for in 2022 equates to just about $16,500,000 APY in 2024 dollars. It’s a happy medium between post-30 vets like Bradberry and Darius Slay signing for right around that $13 million APY mark, and the loftier valuations of shutdown corners that established themselves before negotiating their first contract.

Final Contract Projection: 3 years, $49,500,000 million - $30 million fully guaranteed